GDP, jobs and interest rates: how to read economic news

By Omid Jamshidi · Published 23 October 2026 · 6 min read

What growth figures, unemployment rates and central bank decisions really say, why US and European growth numbers are not directly comparable, and the difference between percent and percentage points.

"Economy shrinks", "Unemployment at record low", "Central bank raises rates by 25 basis points" – economic news is full of numbers that sound precise but are easy to misread. The same figure can also be reported in different ways in different countries. This guide explains the most common indicators and what to look out for. For rising prices, see our separate guide on inflation.

Gross domestic product (GDP)

GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced in a country in a given period. When the news says "the economy grew", it usually means that GDP grew – adjusted for inflation (real GDP), so that higher prices alone do not count as growth.

The most important detail is how growth is expressed:

• In Germany, Spain and most of Europe, growth is usually reported as the change from the previous quarter. "The economy grew by 0.3%" means: compared with the three months before.
• In the United States, quarterly growth is usually reported as an annualised rate – roughly what the growth would be if it continued for a whole year. A US figure of 2% corresponds to only about 0.5% in the European way of counting.

So "the US economy grew by 2%, Germany's by 0.5%" may describe almost the same pace. When comparing countries, check which method is used; many reports also give the change from the same quarter one year earlier.

Two more points:

• First estimates are revised. Statistical offices publish a quick estimate a few weeks after the quarter ends and correct it later, sometimes noticeably. A small minus can become a small plus.
• "Recession" is often used for two quarters of shrinking GDP in a row – a rule of thumb, sometimes called a "technical recession". In the US, a committee of economists dates recessions using a wider range of data, so the two can differ.

Unemployment: two numbers, two meanings

Many countries publish two different unemployment figures, and news reports do not always say which one they mean.

• Survey-based unemployment follows the international definition of the International Labour Organization (ILO): people without work who are actively looking and available to start. It is collected through household surveys and is used to compare countries.
• Registered unemployment counts people who are registered with the employment agency. Its rules depend on national law.

Examples:

• Germany: the Federal Employment Agency publishes the monthly registered figure that dominates the headlines; the Federal Statistical Office publishes the lower ILO-based rate.
• Spain: the quarterly labour force survey (EPA) gives the ILO-based rate; the monthly "paro registrado" counts people registered with the public employment services.
• United States: the monthly jobs report contains both the unemployment rate (from a household survey) and the number of new jobs (from a survey of employers). Markets often react more to the job numbers.

A low unemployment rate is not always good news. If many people have stopped looking for work, they no longer count as unemployed. That is why it is worth looking at the participation rate – the share of working-age people who work or are looking for work – as well.

Interest rates and central banks

Central banks set the key interest rates that influence the cost of credit in the whole economy: the European Central Bank (ECB) for the euro area, including Germany and Spain; the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the United States; the Bank of England in the UK. Higher rates make loans more expensive and saving more attractive, which tends to cool the economy and slow inflation; lower rates do the opposite.

What to know when reading the news:

• The ECB has several key rates. Reports usually refer to the deposit facility rate, which the ECB uses to steer monetary policy. The Fed sets a target range for the federal funds rate, for example "4.25 to 4.5%".
• Basis points: one basis point is 0.01 percentage points. "Rates rise by 25 basis points" means by a quarter of a percentage point.
• Expectations matter: markets often anticipate a decision. A rate cut that everyone expected may barely move prices, while a surprise can have a large effect.
• Time zones: the Fed announces its decisions in the afternoon Washington time – evening in Europe, night in Iran – so many European analyses follow only the next morning.

Percent or percentage points?

This is one of the most frequent mistakes in economic reporting. If an interest rate rises from 2% to 3%, it has risen by one percentage point – but by 50 percent. If unemployment falls from 10% to 9%, it fell by one percentage point, or by 10 percent. Both statements are correct, but they sound very different; good reports use "percentage points" for differences between rates.

Month-on-month, year-on-year, seasonally adjusted

Many figures change with the seasons: more jobs in tourism in summer, more construction in spring. Statistical offices therefore publish seasonally adjusted figures, which remove these regular patterns. Comparisons can be made with the previous month or quarter (short-term change) or with the same period a year earlier (year-on-year). A headline like "unemployment rises" can be true for unadjusted figures in January and false for adjusted ones – it is worth checking which figure is meant.

Seven questions for economic news

1. Is the figure real (inflation-adjusted) or nominal?
2. Compared with what – the previous quarter, the previous year, an annualised rate?
3. Is it a first estimate that may be revised?
4. Which definition is used – survey-based or registered unemployment?
5. Is the change given in percent or percentage points?
6. Is the figure seasonally adjusted?
7. What did economists expect? Markets react to surprises, not to the number alone.

Economic news on Omid57.info

The economy sections of Omid57.info show headlines from business media in several countries – for example the same ECB decision as reported in Germany and in Spain, or US job figures as seen from Europe. Our guide on why the same story looks different in other languages explains why such reports differ, and how to read opinion polls applies similar thinking to survey numbers.

Conclusion

Economic indicators are useful, but only with their context: how growth is measured, which unemployment figure is meant, which rate a central bank changed and whether a change is in percent or percentage points. With these questions in mind, a short economic headline becomes much easier to understand – and to compare across countries.